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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP