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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP