Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to PHI 29, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 31 for 2 yards (81-T.Sherfield). PENALTY on PHI-21-A.Chachere, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -5.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model