Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(8:27) 8-A.Siposs punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model