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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 3 at the 3
Philadelphia Eagles 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0
What Actually Happened
(4:28) (Shotgun) 84-G.Ward pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Hurts.
The Three Options
GO
+3.16 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
- 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.27 EP
KICK
+2.10 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
- 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
