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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to PHI 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-49-T.Cannon.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP