4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to SF 48 for 2 yards (98-H.Ridgeway).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model