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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to PHI 21, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-J.Reagor pushed ob at PHI 32 for 11 yards (29-T.Hufanga).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP