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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 29

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-J.Kinlaw), Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs, recovered by PHI-88-D.Goedert at SF 35. 88-D.Goedert to SF 27 for 8 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP