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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 38

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to WAS 10, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.10 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP