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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to NYG 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 24 for 8 yards (51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model