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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 19

Washington Commanders 17 – New York Giants 23

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.82 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP