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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 31

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.03 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model