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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 82

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NYG 35, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.84 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 82, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP