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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Giants
4th & 6 at the 29
New York Giants 10 – Washington Commanders 14
What Actually Happened
(9:12) 5-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The Three Options
GO
+0.82 EP
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
- 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK
+1.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
- 18% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
