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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 5

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 5-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.82 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 5, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP