4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to WAS 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model