4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 4-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 34 for 10 yards (24-D.Washington; 7-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.24 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model