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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 3-J.Charlton punts 33 yards to NO 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP