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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 26 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:30) 3-J.Charlton punts 37 yards to NO 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -1.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model