Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 23

(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 84-L.Humphrey.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.57 EP
62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP