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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 4-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to CAR 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 25 for no gain (88-T.Montgomery).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.33 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model