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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 17 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 3-J.Charlton punts 39 yards to NO 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.93 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP