4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston sacked at CAR 40 for -7 yards (90-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.08 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model