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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 17 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 5-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Granderson), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton, RECOVERED by NO-53-Z.Baun at NO 29. 53-Z.Baun to CAR 38 for 33 yards (70-B.Christensen).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.00 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model