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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 23 for no gain (88-T.Montgomery).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model