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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 5-Z.Gonzalez 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 2, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP