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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to ARI 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 4-R.Moore to ARI 27 for 6 yards (91-S.Weatherly).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.42 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP