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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Minnesota Vikings 33

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 9, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model