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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Minnesota Vikings 33

What Actually Happened

(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk to MIN 6 for 35 yards (24-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model