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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 91

Minnesota Vikings 33 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 3-J.Berry punts 60 yards to ARI 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 4-R.Moore to ARI 36 for 5 yards (45-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.52 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 91, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP