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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Minnesota Vikings 33

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 14-A.Lee punts 60 yards to MIN 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 2 for -4 yards (81-D.Daniels).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model