4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 3-J.Berry punts 43 yards to ARI 23, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP