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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP