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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model