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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to PIT 10, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 25 for 15 yards (24-J.Abram, 32-D.Leavitt). PENALTY on PIT-14-R.McCloud, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP