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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 32 for 15 yards (85-D.Carrier, 55-M.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model