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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 7 at the 50
Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7
What Actually Happened
(13:03) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.63 EP
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.96 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP
KICK
-1.34 EP
- 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT
-0.62 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
