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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to LV 3, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-35-A.Maulet.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model