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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 6-P.Harvin punts 59 yards to LV 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 18 for 10 yards (41-R.Spillane; 31-J.Layne).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model