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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to LV 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.31 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model