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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 15

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 2-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.94 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP