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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 8-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.97 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 20, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model