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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 89

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker Aborted. 42-M.Orzech FUMBLES at LA 5, touched at LA 5, recovered by LA-6-J.Hekker at LA 1. 6-J.Hekker to LA 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), RECOVERED by IND-16-A.Dulin at LA -4. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.50 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model