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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 8-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.29 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model