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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 16-T.Vizcaino 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.60 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model