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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 16-T.Vizcaino 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model