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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 11 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 16-T.Vizcaino 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.24 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 14, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model