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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 26

Los Angeles Chargers 11 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(:07) 16-T.Vizcaino 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. PENALTY on LAC-79-T.Pipkins, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model