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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to CHI 7, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 15-N.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model